Donald Trump’s advisors are floating proposals, both publicly and privately, aimed at ending the ongoing war in Ukraine, suggesting measures that would see significant parts of Ukrainian territory ceded to Russia for the foreseeable future. These proposals, analyzed by Reuters and supported by insider accounts, reflect the potential direction of Trump’s approach to the nearly three-year conflict should he take office in January 2025.
Among the key figures shaping these proposals is retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, Trump’s prospective envoy for the Russia-Ukraine war. His plan, along with those of other advisors, includes several common elements: removing Ukraine’s NATO membership from the table, pressuring both Moscow and Kyiv into negotiations, and using conditional military aid as leverage. The proposals suggest halting U.S. military assistance to Ukraine if Kyiv resists talks, while offering increased support if Russian President Vladimir Putin refuses to engage.
Trump, who has pledged repeatedly to resolve the conflict within 24 hours of his inauguration, has yet to detail how he would achieve this ambitious goal. Analysts and former national security officials remain skeptical, citing the complexity of the conflict and the entrenched positions of both sides.
A Trump Peace Plan: Early Contours
While no formal working group has been established to craft a comprehensive peace plan, statements by Trump’s advisors hint at its potential framework. Kellogg’s approach, for instance, involves a mixture of incentives and sanctions aimed at forcing negotiations. However, this approach could face pushback from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has consistently emphasized NATO membership as part of his “Victory Plan,” and from European allies and U.S. lawmakers.
Zelensky has shown some openness to negotiations, acknowledging the challenges posed by manpower shortages and territorial losses. However, he has maintained his commitment to reclaim occupied territories, a position unlikely to align with concessions that would involve territorial cessions to Russia.
On the other hand, experts suggest that Putin may be in no rush to negotiate. Eugene Rumer, a former U.S. intelligence analyst on Russia, notes that the Russian leader may see greater benefits in prolonging the conflict, gaining more territory, and waiting to gauge potential concessions from a Trump-led administration.
Complex Challenges Ahead
Russia currently controls Crimea and vast portions of Donbass, Zaporizhia, and Kherson, alongside smaller areas in Mykolaiv and Kharkiv. A negotiated ceasefire recognizing these territorial gains, as previously indicated by Putin, would require Ukraine and its Western allies to make significant compromises—a prospect Kyiv has consistently rejected.
Meanwhile, the international response remains divided. Some European allies are stepping up aid to Ukraine, and President Joe Biden continues to support the war effort with weapons deliveries. This dynamic could complicate Trump’s ability to pressure Kyiv into talks. Furthermore, Kellogg’s proposal to increase aid to Ukraine as leverage against Putin may face resistance within the U.S. Congress, where some of Trump’s closest allies oppose further military assistance.
High-Stakes Diplomacy
Trump’s advisors acknowledge that any peace deal would ultimately depend on direct engagement between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky. However, analysts, including Rumer, express doubt that a comprehensive and realistic solution is achievable in the short term, given the entrenched positions and geopolitical stakes involved.
For now, the proposed plans remain speculative, underscoring the immense challenges of brokering peace in a deeply fractured conflict with far-reaching implications for global stability.
Source: ANA-MPA / Translated by: Konstantinos Menyktas
